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November 11, 2015

More students are graduating but are they leaving high school prepared?

Last month the U.S. Department of Education released preliminary data showing the U.S. is on-track to set yet another record on-time high school graduation rate. While a preliminary national rate was not provided, the data showed that at least 36 states have increased their graduation rates over the previous year which reported an unprecedented 81 percent on-time rate nationally.

Another report was released yesterday by the Alliance for Excellent Education, America’s Promise Alliance, Civic Enterprises, and Everyone Graduates Center showing the recent increase in on-time graduation has led to the number of high school dropouts to fall from 1 million in 2008 to 750,000 in 2012. Over the same time period the number of so-called ‘Drop Out Factories’– high schools that fail to graduate at least 60 percent of their students within four years—decreased from just over 1,800 to 1,040 schools. These are dramatic decreases in such a short amount of time by any measure. But these decreases are made even more impressive by the fact that between 2002 and 2008 the number of dropouts increased by over 25,000 while the number of ‘Drop-out Factories’ fell by less than 200.

More students may be graduating high school but does that necessarily mean more students are finishing high school with the skills they need to succeed in college or the workplace? This is the big question. If high schools are just handing out pieces of paper to any student who attends for four years, a higher graduation rate doesn’t mean much of anything. Yet, if more students are graduating college and career ready, then indeed the record graduation rate is something to celebrate.

Unfortunately, it isn’t possible to determine how many students are graduating college and career ready, at least at the national level. Reason being, each state sets its own requirement for obtaining a high school diploma. In fact, a number of states set different requirements for different types of high school diplomas. A recent report from Achieve found 93 diploma options across all 50 states and the District of Columbia for the Class of 2014. The report noted that only 5 states (Delaware, the District of Columbia, Georgia, Kentucky, and Tennessee) require their students to meet college and career ready standards in math and English Language Arts (ELA) to earn a high school diploma. Meaning, these are the only states whose graduation rates are the same as the percent of graduates who are college and career ready.

This doesn’t mean that other states don’t have college and career readiness requirements to earn a high school diploma. In fact, 26 other states offer at least one diploma aligned with college and career standards. However, these states also offer multiple diplomas where students may still graduate high school without meeting college and career ready expectations by either opting out of the college and career ready requirements or choosing not to opt in. Moreover, just 9 of these states publicly report the percentage of students earning college and career ready aligned diplomas. So only in 14 states do we know what percent of high school graduates finish high school ready for college or the workforce.

The lack of alignment between diploma requirements and college-career ready standards may lead some to conclude the recent rise in graduation rates is due to a lowering the bar to graduation. But that would be wrong. Achieve’s most recent annual Closing the Expectations Gap report shows the bar to a high school diploma has been raising in most states—not falling. In fact, when Achieve first started examining high school graduation requirements in 2004 not a single state aligned their graduation requirements to college and career standards, and only Arkansas and Texas required students to pass an advanced Algebra course to earn a high school diploma. Since that time a number of states have adopted similar requirements for high school diploma.

The good news, then, is that graduation rates are not increasing simply by giving out more diplomas, but by more students meeting more rigorous graduation requirements. The bad news is it is still unclear how many of those requirements are aligned with college and career standards. Knowing how many students complete high school college and career ready is vitally important for policymakers in order to make more informed decisions to ensure all students leave high school prepared for postsecondary success. – Jim Hull

October 9, 2015

Concern Over the High School Preparation of Non-College Goers

Parents, employers and students alike feel high schools are not adequately preparing their graduates for success in the workforce according to the results of a recent survey from Achieve. While more than 8 in 10 parents are at least somewhat satisfied with the job their child’s high school did preparing them for success after high school, high schools are not held in such high regard when it comes to preparing graduates for the workforce in particular.

In fact, fewer than half (45 percent) of parents of non-college goers feel high school prepared their child for the workforce. Moreover, just 56 percent of both non-college goers and employers feel high schools do at least a very good job preparing their graduates for the workforce. Although non-college goers and employers have a more positive view than parents on this question, a large portion of all three groups do not feel high schools are doing an adequate job.

Why is this the case? There is no clear answer but it could be that high schools are focusing more on preparing their students for college than the workforce. This is evident by the finding that high schools do a better job providing parents information on what courses their child needs to get into college than providing them information related to workforce preparation.

Parents may not feel high schools are doing an adequate job preparing non-college goers for the workforce because they feel their child isn’t taking the courses their child needs to have success in the workforce. In fact, a majority of parents believe requiring higher level math and science courses, such as Algebra 2 and biology, is needed to prepare their child, whether going to college or not. As my Path Least Taken II report found, these higher level math and science courses don’t just improve the chances a student will get into and succeed in college, they also increase the chances non-college goers will find success in the workforce. Unfortunately, few non-college goers complete such high-level courses according my original Path Least Taken report. On the other hand, the same report found that nearly all college-goers took them.

Maybe parents are onto something. If all students did in fact take high level math and science courses they would not only be prepared for college they would be prepared for the workforce as well. Of course, there is more to being college and career ready than completing Algebra 2 and biology but it is a big step towards ensuring all students graduate college and career ready. –Jim Hull

Filed under: Career Readiness,college,Course taking,CPE,High school,research — Jim Hull @ 10:27 am

August 27, 2015

More students graduating high school college-ready according to new ACT report

According to ACT’s The Condition of College & Career Readiness 2015 report released earlier this week, a growing proportion of high school students are graduating from high school college-ready. While overall scores remained flat, more students scored high enough to reach the ACT college-ready benchmarks in each of the test’s four subject areas- English, reading, math, and science. However, just 28 percent of test-takers reached these benchmarks in 2015 but it is still higher than the 23 percent who reached all four benchmarks in 2009. So, while college-readiness rates remain low, they have been trending higher even as more states require all students to take the college entrance exam and more students head to college than ever before. Keep in mind, such dramatic increases in those being tested typically has a dampening effect on scores.

Unlike college-readiness benchmarks, overall scores remained flat between 2014 and 2015. In fact, overall scores have remained between 20.9 and 21.1 for over a decade, with the exception of 2007 when the overall score reached 21.2. However, a closer look at the overall results show that white, black, and Hispanic students all saw increases in their scores over the past year. So, while overall scores have remained flat, the scores of each of the subgroups have improved. This happens because more black and Hispanic students—who score significantly lower ‘on-average’- are taking the ACT while a smaller proportion of white students- who score higher ‘on-average’- are taking the test. As a result, each of the subgroups’ scores increased while the overall score remained flat. This is what statisticians call ‘Simpson’s Paradox’.

While the results are not earth shattering they provide evidence that our high schools are in fact doing a better job preparing students for college. Yes, we all want to see faster improvement but improving nearly 25,000 high schools does not happen overnight. Fortunately, most indicators of the effectiveness of our nation’s high schools show they are heading in the right direction. More students are graduating high school on-time than ever before and more students are getting into and enrolling in college as well. Add the fact that more high school graduates are college-ready paints a pretty clear picture that our nation’s high schools are on the right path.


The Findings

State Scores

  • Of the 30 states where at least half of graduates took the ACT:
    • Minnesota once again achieved the highest composite score with 22.7.
      • However, just 78 percent of Minnesota 2015 graduates took the ACT
    • Graduates from Hawaii posted the lowest scores among states with a score of 18.5.
  • Of the 15 states where at least 90 percent of graduates took the ACT:
    • Colorado and Illinois posted the highest scores at 20.7, followed by North Dakota (20.6).
    • Hawaii (18.5), Mississippi (19.0), and Alabama (19.1) had the lowest scores out of this group.
    • Hawaii posted the greatest gains since 2014, improving by three-tenths of a point.
      • Alabama saw their scores drop by 1.5 points over the past year. However, this is likely due to the fact that the percent of graduates taking the ACT increased from 80 to 100 percent. Such increases typically lead to lower-scores, at least in the short-term.

National Scores

  • The nation’s graduating Class of 2015 had an average composite score of 21.0, the same as in 2014.
    • At this score, an average high school graduate has about a 75 percent chance of getting admitted into a good college.*
  • Scores increased by one-tenth of a point in reading (21.4), English (20.4) and science (20.9) between 2014 and 2015, while scores decreased by one-tenth of a point on the math test (20.8).
  • Scores for black and white students improved.
    • White graduates increased their scores by one-tenth of a point between 2014 and 2015 (22.3 to 22.4).
    • The average black graduate score improved from 17.0 to 17.1 over the past year.
    • As for Hispanic graduates, their scores increased from 18.8 to 18.9 in the past year as well.

College Readiness

  • Twenty-eight percent of 2015 high school graduates were college-ready in all four ACT subject tests (English, reading, math, and science), which is two percentage points higher than in 2014 and five percentage point increase since 2009.
    • Graduates who achieve these benchmarks are ready to succeed in first-year, credit-bearing college courses in the specific subjects ACT tests, according to ACT research. “Success” is defined as a 75% likelihood of earning a ‘C’ or better in the relevant course.
  • Little change in college readiness by subject.
    • The number of graduates reaching ACT’s college-ready benchmark in science increased from 37 to 38 percent over the past year.
    • In math, the number of graduates deemed college-ready decreased by one percent as was the case between 2013 and 2014.
    • In English there was no change in the number of graduates being college-ready but there was a two percentage point increase in reading.

Core Course Rigor

  • Graduates who completed ACT’s recommended core curriculum were much more likely to be college-ready.
    • Two-thirds (67 percent) of graduates who completed ACT’s Core Courses (4 years of English, and 3 years each of math, social studies, and science) met ACT’s college-ready benchmark in English compared to 36 percent of those who did not complete the Core Courses. In reading, 49 percent of graduates who completed the Core Courses met ACT’s college-ready benchmarks for reading compared to 34 percent who did not.
    • There was a much greater disparity when it came to math and science.
      • For those graduates who completed the Core Courses, nearly half (45 percent) were college-ready in math compared to just eight percent who had not.
      • For those graduates who completed the Core Courses, 42 percent were college-ready in science compared to just 18 percent who had not.

Test Takers

  • About 59 percent of all 2015 high graduates took the ACT, compared to 57 percent in 2014 and 45 percent in 2009.
  • More minority graduates are taking the ACT.
    • In 2015, nearly 29 percent of ACT test-takers were Hispanic or black, compared to 24 percent in 2010.
    • Furthermore, the percentage of test-takers who were white decreased between 2010 and 2015, from 62 percent to 55 percent.


For more information on how to use college entrance exam scores to evaluate your school, check out the Center’s Data First Web site.

* Data based on calculations from the Center for Public Education’s Chasing the College Acceptance Letter: Is it harder to get into college

August 20, 2015

Algebra II not just for college goers

“Because colleges require all applicants to take advanced math — at least Algebra II — this is the math standard that all students in the country will now have to meet, requiring mastery of obscure algebraic procedures that the vast majority of adults never use

This belief shared by venture capitalist Tim Dintersmith in his blog post for the Huffington Post about the failures of the Common Core is certainly far from unique. In fact, the belief that advanced math courses such as Algebra II is only needed for those who wish to go on to college is likely shared by a number of educators, policymakers, and parents throughout the country. This is probably due to the fact that, at first glance, such high level math skills are only needed to get into and graduate from college.

But does data actually backup such a belief? Should Algebra II only be relegated to those high school graduates who plan to go onto college? Fortunately, answers to these questions can be found in my recent report Path Least Take II: Preparing non-college goers for success.

What I found will likely come as a surprise to Tim Dintersmith and others who believe that high level math skills are not needed for those who don’t go on to college. In fact, Algebra II is all but essential for those non-college going graduates to succeed in the labor market. By itself, completing Algebra II:

  • Increases the chances non-college goers will:
    • be employed full-time.
    • work for an employer that offers medical insurance.
    • have a retirement fund.
    • earn higher wages.
  • Less likely to:
    • ever be unemployed.
    • be unemployed for more than 6 months
    • be on public assistance.

The positive impacts of Algebra II are amplified when you also consider the fact that many professional certifications or licenses require (slides 39-41) the math skills at least at the level of Algebra II. And the Path Least Taken report shows that obtaining a professional certification or license has the greatest positive impact on whether a non-college enrollee finds success in the labor market after high school.

Of course completing Algebra II in high school doesn’t guarantee a non-college goer will go on to to get a good job or that a non-college goer who fails to complete Algebra II will be destined for career failure. However, preparing students to complete higher level math courses such as Algebra II should not be reserved only for those students who plan on attending college. Our high schools should ensure all students complete at least Algebra II as well as higher level courses in English, science, and social studies, among others, to maximize all students’ chances for a good job. – Jim Hull

Filed under: Career Readiness,college,Common Core,Course taking,CPE,High school — Jim Hull @ 1:27 pm

August 14, 2015

Employment gaps not just achievement gaps

It isn’t a secret that, on-average, traditionally disadvantaged students such as poor and minority students have lower achievement than traditionally more advantaged students. Such differences are referred to as the “achievement gap’ which has been the driver of education policy over the past couple of decades. In fact, identifying achievement gaps has been critical in the improved performance of our poor and minority students during this time period. The same is true when it comes to “attainment gaps,” whereas poor and minority students graduate high school at a lower rate than their white classmates. Again, the identification of this gap and the focus policymakers and educators have put on narrowing it has led to a remarkable narrowing of attainment gaps in just the past decade alone. Such progress is certainly great news but unquestionably more work is needed to close both the achievement and attainment gaps completely.

Yet, gaps not only exist while students are in school. They remain well beyond high school, too. My report The Path Least Take Part 2 identified one. My analysis showed that even if achievement and attainment gaps closed in high school, poor and minority students who didn’t go onto college would still be less likely to get a good job than their more advantaged, non-college going peers. The gap between black and white non-college goers who earned similar credentials was particularly wide. Non_college goer Chart_3For example, black non-college goers who earned low-credentials were 20 percentage points less likely to be employed full-time at age 26 than similarly credentialed white non-college goers. However, the gap is cut in half when both black and white non-college goers earned high-credentials. Similar results were found when looking at other indicators of having a career success such as if they had ever been unemployed or if their most current employer offered medical insurance.

My report shows that earning high credentials — including completing high level math and science courses, earning good grades, and obtaining a job skill — are essential for future career success for poor and minority non-college goers. Without this preparation, traditionally disadvantaged high school graduates who don’t go onto college have much less of a chance of career success than their more advantaged classmates. So it is imperative that all non-college goers, but especially poor and minority non-college goers, receive the preparation and skills they need so the employment gap will close. –Jim Hull

Filed under: Achievement Gaps,Career Readiness,Course taking,High school — Jim Hull @ 3:59 pm

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